Molecular In-Depth on the Epidemiological Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.5.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the generation of new variants periodically recurs. The XBB.1.5 SARS-CoV-2 variant is one of the most recent. This research was aimed at verifying the potential hazard of this new subvariant. To achieve this objective, we performed a genome-based integrative approach, integrating results from genetic variability/phylodynamics with structural and immunoinformatic analyses to obtain as comprehensive a viewpoint as possible. The Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) shows that the viral population size reached the plateau phase on 24 November 2022, and the number of lineages peaked at the same time. The evolutionary rate is relatively low, amounting to 6.9 × 10-4 subs/sites/years. The NTD domain is identical for XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 whereas their RBDs only differ for the mutations at position 486, where the Phe (in the original Wuhan) is replaced by a Ser in XBB and XBB.1, and by a Pro in XBB.1.5. The variant XBB.1.5 seems to spread more slowly than sub-variants that have caused concerns in 2022. The multidisciplinary molecular in-depth analyses on XBB.1.5 performed here does not provide evidence for a particularly high risk of viral expansion. Results indicate that XBB.1.5 does not possess features to become a new, global, public health threat. As of now, in its current molecular make-up, XBB.1.5 does not represent the most dangerous variant.

Genome-based comparison between the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XBB and its parental lineages.

Recombination is the main contributor to RNA virus evolution, and SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic produced several recombinants. The most recent SARS-CoV-2 recombinant is the lineage labeled XBB, also known as Gryphon, which arose from BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1. Here we performed a genome-based survey aimed to compare the new recombinant with its parental lineages that never became dominant. Genetic analyses indicated that the recombinant XBB and its first descendant XBB.1 show an evolutionary condition typical of an evolutionary blind background with no further epidemiologically relevant descendant. Genetic variability and expansion capabilities are slightly higher than parental lineages. Bayesian Skyline Plot indicates that XBB reached its plateau around October 6, 2022 and after an initial rapid growth the viral population size did not further expand, and around November 10, 2022 its levels of genetic variability decreased. Simultaneously with the reduction of the XBB population size, an increase of the genetic variability of its first sub-lineage XBB.1 occurred, that in turn reached the plateau around November 9, 2022 showing a kind of vicariance with its direct progenitors. Structure analysis indicates that the affinity for ACE2 surface in XBB/XBB.1 RBDs is weaker than for BA.2 RBD. In conclusion, at present XBB and XBB.1 do not show evidence about a particular danger or high expansion capability. Genome-based monitoring must continue uninterrupted to individuate if further mutations can make XBB more dangerous or generate new subvariants with different expansion capability.

Genetic and Structural Data on the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BQ.1 Variant Reveal Its Low Potential for Epidemiological Expansion.

The BQ.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant, also known as Cerberus, is one of the most recent Omicron descendant lineages. Compared to its direct progenitor BA.5, BQ.1 has some additional spike mutations in some key antigenic sites, which confer further immune escape ability over other circulating lineages. In such a context, here, we perform a genome-based survey aimed at obtaining a complete-as-possible nuance of this rapidly evolving Omicron subvariant. Genetic data suggest that BQ.1 represents an evolutionary blind background, lacking the rapid diversification that is typical of a dangerous lineage. Indeed, the evolutionary rate of BQ.1 is very similar to that of BA.5 (7.6 × 10-4 and 7 × 10-4 subs/site/year, respectively), which has been circulating for several months. The Bayesian Skyline Plot reconstruction indicates a low level of genetic variability, suggesting that the peak was reached around 3 September 2022. Concerning the affinity for ACE2, structure analyses (also performed by comparing the properties of BQ.1 and BA.5 RBD) indicate that the impact of the BQ.1 mutations may be modest. Likewise, immunoinformatic analyses showed moderate differences between the BQ.1 and BA5 potential B-cell epitopes. In conclusion, genetic and structural analyses on SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1 suggest no evidence of a particularly dangerous or high expansion capability. Genome-based monitoring must continue uninterrupted for a better understanding of its descendants and all other lineages.

The Biological Properties of the SARS-CoV-2 Cameroon Variant Spike: An Intermediate between the Alpha and Delta Variants.

An analysis of the structural effect of the mutations of the B.1.640.2 (IHU) Spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and N-terminal Domain (NTD) is reported along with a comparison with the sister lineage B.1.640.1. and a selection of variants of concern. The effect of the mutations on the RBD-ACE2 interaction was also assessed. The structural analysis applied computational methods that are able to carry out in silico mutagenesis to calculate energy minimization and the folding energy variation consequent to residue mutations. Tools for electrostatic calculation were applied to quantify and display the protein surface electrostatic potential. Interactions at the RBD-ACE2 interface were scrutinized using computational tools that identify the interactions and predict the contribution of each interface residue to the stability of the complex. The comparison among the RBDs shows that the most evident differences between the variants is in the distribution of the surface electrostatic potential: that of B.1.640.1 is as that of the Alpha RBD, while B.1.640.2 appears to have an intermediate surface potential pattern with characteristics between those of the Alpha and Delta variants. Moreover, the B.1.640.2 Spike includes the mutation E484K that in other variants has been suggested to be involved in immune evasion. These properties may hint at the possibility that B.1.640.2 emerged with a potentially increased infectivity with respect to the sister B.1.640.1 variant, but significantly lower than that of the Delta and Omicron variants. However, the analysis of their NTD domains highlights deletions, destabilizing mutations and charge alterations that can limit the ability of the B.1.640.1 and B.1.640.2 variants to interact with cellular components, such as cell surface receptors.

The SARS-CoV-2 Mu variant should not be left aside: It warrants attention for its immuno-escaping ability.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a threatening impact on a global scale, largely due to the emergence of newly SARS-CoV-2 variants. The Mu (PANGO lineage B.1.621), was first identified in Colombia in January 2021 and was classified as a variant of interest (VOI) in August 2021, due to a constellation of mutations that likely-mediate an unexpectedly enhanced immune resistance to inactivated vaccine-elicited antibodies. Despite recent studies suggesting that the Mu variant appears to have less infectivity than the Delta variant, here we examined the structural effect of the Mu spike protein mutations and predicted the potential impact on infectivity of the Mu variant compared with the Delta and Delta plus spike protein.

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 Indian variants: Are electrostatic potential changes responsible for a higher transmission rate?

Lineage B.1.617+, also known as G/452R.V3 and now denoted by WHO with the Greek letters δ and κ, is a recently described SARS-CoV-2 variant under investigation first identified in October 2020 in India. As of May 2021, three sublineages labeled as B.1.617.1 (κ), B.1.617.2 (δ), and B.1.617.3 have been already identified, and their potential impact on the current pandemic is being studied. This variant has 13 amino acid changes, three in its spike protein, which are currently of particular concern: E484Q, L452R, and P681R. Here, we report a major effect of the mutations characterizing this lineage, represented by a marked alteration of the surface electrostatic potential (EP) of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. Enhanced RBD-EP is particularly noticeable in the B.1.617.2 (δ) sublineage, which shows multiple replacements of neutral or negatively charged amino acids with positively charged amino acids. We here hypothesize that this EP change can favor the interaction between the B.1.617+ RBD and the negatively charged ACE2, thus conferring a potential increase in the virus transmission.

Shortening Epitopes to Survive: The Case of SARS-CoV-2 Lambda Variant.

Among the more recently identified SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Interest (VOI) is the Lambda variant, which emerged in Peru and has rapidly spread to South American regions and the US. This variant remains poorly investigated, particularly regarding the effects of mutations on the thermodynamic parameters affecting the stability of the Spike protein and its Receptor Binding Domain. We report here an in silico study on the potential impact of the Spike protein mutations on the immuno-escape ability of the Lambda variant. Bioinformatics analysis suggests that a combination of shortening the immunogenic epitope loops and the generation of potential N-glycosylation sites may be a viable adaptation strategy, potentially allowing this emerging viral variant to escape from host immunity.

Hydroxychloroquine and mortality in COVID-19 patients: a systematic review and a meta-analysis of observational studies and randomized controlled trials.

Background: Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was proposed as potential treatment for COVID-19, but its association with mortality is unclear. We reviewed published literature for evidence of an association between HCQ (with or without azithromycin (AZM)) and total mortality in COVID-19 patients.Methods: Articles were retrieved until April 29th, 2021 by searching in seven databases. Data were combined using the general-variance-based method.Results: A total of 25 cohort studies (N=41,339 patients) and 11 randomized clinical trials (RCTs; N=8,709) were found. The use of HCQ was not associated with mortality in meta-analysis of RCTs (pooled risk ratio (PRR): 1.08, 95%CI: 0.97-1.20; I2=0%), but it was associated with 20% lower mortality risk (PRR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.69-0.93; I2=80%) in pooling of cohort studies. The negative association with mortality was mainly apparent by pooling cohort studies that used lower doses of HCQ (≤400 mg/day; PRR=0.69, 95%CI: 0.57-0.87). Use of HCQ+AZM (11 studies) was associated with 25% non-statistically significant lower mortality risk (PPR=0.75; 0.51-1.10; P=0.15). Use of HCQ was not associated with severe adverse events (PRR=1.12, 95%CI: 0.88-1.44; I2=0%).Conclusions: HCQ use was not associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients in pooling results from RCTs (high level of certainty of evidence), but it was associated with 20% mortality reduction when findings from observational studies were combined (low level of certainty of evidence). The reduction of mortality was mainly apparent in observational studies where lower doses of HCQ were used. These findings might help disentangling the debate on HCQ use in COVID-19.

Can reasoned mass testing impact covid-19 outcomes in wide community contexts? An evidence-based opinion.

We describe the early phases of a COVID-19 epidemic in two contiguous Italian regions, Lombardy and Veneto, which were heavily and simultaneously hit by SARS-CoV-2 in Italy but showed markedly different disease outcome in terms of case fatality rate, SARS-CoV-2-attributable mortality and hospitalization. We discuss data limitations together with similarities and differences of the regional context possibly affecting COVID-19 control in the two regions. We conclude that the better COVID-19 outcome in Veneto was due, at least in part, to the adoption of a strategy of active search of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections (Reasoned Mass Testing), instead of a strategy strictly based on the detection of symptomatic cases.

Evidence for mutations in SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates potentially affecting virus transmission.

Italy is the first western country suffering heavy severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and disease impact after coronavirus disease-2019 pandemia started in China. Even though the presence of mutations on spike glycoprotein and nucleocapsid in Italian isolates has been reported, the potential impact of these mutations on viral transmission has not been evaluated. We have compared SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from Italian patients with virus sequences from Chinese patients. We focussed upon three nonsynonymous mutations of genes coding for S(one) and N (two) viral proteins present in Italian isolates and absent in Chinese ones, using various bioinformatics tools. Amino acid analysis and changes in three-dimensional protein structure suggests the mutations reduce protein stability and, particularly for S1 mutation, the enhanced torsional ability of the molecule could favor virus binding to cell receptor(s). This theoretical interpretation awaits experimental and clinical confirmation.

Evolutionary analysis of SARS-CoV-2: how mutation of Non-Structural Protein 6 (NSP6) could affect viral autophagy.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is a new coronavirus that has spread globally, infecting more than 150000 people, and being declared pandemic by the WHO. We provide here bio-informatic, evolutionary analysis of 351 available sequences of its genome with the aim of mapping genome structural variations and the patterns of selection. METHODS: A Maximum likelihood tree has been built and selective pressure has been investigated in order to find any mutation developed during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that could potentially affect clinical evolution of the infection. FINDING: We have found in more recent isolates the presence of two mutations affecting the Non-Structural Protein 6 (NSP6) and the Open Reding Frame10 (ORF 10) adjacent regions. Amino acidic change stability analysis suggests both mutations could confer lower stability of the protein structures. INTERPRETATION: One of the two mutations, likely developed within the genome during virus spread, could affect virus intracellular survival. Genome follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 spread is urgently needed in order to identify mutations that could significantly modify virus pathogenicity.